This was so thought-provoking... wow. The last bit about river vs. village is so fascinating because as much as I'd like to say the people of the River and Village are two versions of the same folk. But it's in the act of someething or rather in our devotion/delusion to it that we choose to be in the River or in the Village. And that choice - in favor of the Stock quote - is defined by skill and experience, because it doesn't matter whether you're in the River or Village, an avalanche may wipe both. But the odds can be on your favor on a good day.
It is true that an avalanche can hit you whether you're in the River or Village. Ignorance is not bliss when you're playing with risk; if you're going to take on risk, it's best to be clear-eyed about what you're doing.
My favorite posts are writers making connections I’ve never considered between topics I’m interested in. This was great.
I have been outlining a post on my experiencing working for lawyers (Open Society Foundations and Hewlett Foundation), who focus on minimizing risk/harm through regulation, versus entrepreneurs (Omidyar Network and Gates Foundation) who make big bets on risky ideas that rarely succeed. Minimizing harm and betting on risky projects both seem like worthy goals and it’s good to see so much action on both ends of the AI spectrum.
Does Nate Silver touch on how much of the difference between the river and village is nature versus nurture? Are lawyers destined to go to law school based on their personality traits? If you forced all the MBA kids to go to law school and vice-versa, would they trade places?
Look forward to reading that post. Charity effectiveness is of great interest to me.
I don't think he weighs in much there. In my own experience, risk preference feels relatively innate. It seems challenging to change from one extreme to the other.
Lawyers and MBAs feel pretty similar to me. In fact, I could have seen myself doing either path, but went the MBA route...
I feel like maybe the better high prestige, white collar comparison would be Y-Combinator founders vs Big Three management consultants: going the management consultant route for a smart kid out of college is much safer than trying to be an entrepreneur, even if the total upside is more limited.
This was so thought-provoking... wow. The last bit about river vs. village is so fascinating because as much as I'd like to say the people of the River and Village are two versions of the same folk. But it's in the act of someething or rather in our devotion/delusion to it that we choose to be in the River or in the Village. And that choice - in favor of the Stock quote - is defined by skill and experience, because it doesn't matter whether you're in the River or Village, an avalanche may wipe both. But the odds can be on your favor on a good day.
It is true that an avalanche can hit you whether you're in the River or Village. Ignorance is not bliss when you're playing with risk; if you're going to take on risk, it's best to be clear-eyed about what you're doing.
My favorite posts are writers making connections I’ve never considered between topics I’m interested in. This was great.
I have been outlining a post on my experiencing working for lawyers (Open Society Foundations and Hewlett Foundation), who focus on minimizing risk/harm through regulation, versus entrepreneurs (Omidyar Network and Gates Foundation) who make big bets on risky ideas that rarely succeed. Minimizing harm and betting on risky projects both seem like worthy goals and it’s good to see so much action on both ends of the AI spectrum.
Does Nate Silver touch on how much of the difference between the river and village is nature versus nurture? Are lawyers destined to go to law school based on their personality traits? If you forced all the MBA kids to go to law school and vice-versa, would they trade places?
Look forward to reading that post. Charity effectiveness is of great interest to me.
I don't think he weighs in much there. In my own experience, risk preference feels relatively innate. It seems challenging to change from one extreme to the other.
Lawyers and MBAs feel pretty similar to me. In fact, I could have seen myself doing either path, but went the MBA route...
I feel like maybe the better high prestige, white collar comparison would be Y-Combinator founders vs Big Three management consultants: going the management consultant route for a smart kid out of college is much safer than trying to be an entrepreneur, even if the total upside is more limited.